Possible correlation between annual gravity change and shallow background seismicity rate at subduction zone by surface load

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has monitored global gravity changes since 2002. Gravity changes are considered to represent hydrological water mass movements around the surface of the globe, although fault slip of a large earthquake also causes perturbation of gravity. Since surface water movements are expected to affect earthquake occurrences via elastic surface load or pore-fluid pressure increase, correlation between gravity changes and occurrences of small (not large) earthquakes may reflect the effects of surface water movements. In the present study, we focus on earthquakes smaller than magnitude 7.5 and examine the relation between annual gravity changes and earthquake occurrences at worldwide subduction zones. First, we extract amplitudes of annual gravity changes from GRACE data for land. Next, we estimate background seismicity rates in the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model from shallow seismicity data having magnitudes of over 4.5. Then, we perform correlation analysis of the amplitudes of the annual gravity changes and the shallow background seismicity rates, excluding source areas of large earthquakes, and find moderate positive correlation. It implies that annual water movements can activate shallow earthquakes, although the surface load elastostatic stress changes are on the order of or below 1 kPa, as small as a regional case in a previous study. We speculate that periodic stress perturbation is amplified through nonlinear responses of frictional faults.